#CHK EARNINGS WHISPER PROFESSIONAL#
Basically what we’ve learned is Richard Bernstein was right back in 1995 when he pointed out the key to outperforming the stock market is identifying where a stock is within the Earnings Expectation Life Cycle and that the best way to do that is using a combination of professional expectations and investor sentiment. We've also collected 12,646,367 sentiment readings from 1,171,260 individual investors and studied 535,522 earnings releases and 135,579 guidance announcements. Since then, we've published 113,880 Earnings Whisper ® numbers based on expectations from 11,534 professional analysts. Another 30 years later, Mark Bagnoli, Mesod Daniel Beneish, and Susan Watts published their paper "Whisper Forecasts of Quarterly Earnings per Share" pointing out that a stock's outperformance/underperformance after earnings has more to do with whisper numbers than consensus estimates. 35 years later, Ray Ball and Phillip Brown published their paper "An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers" identifying the phenomenon of Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD), showing that stocks outperform the market after reporting earnings above earnings estimates and they underperform if they miss estimates. To read this article on click here.It has now been more than 80 years since Benjamin Graham and David Dodd published their book "Security Analysis" which was, in part, about the importance of properly measuring a company's earnings for proper stock selection.
#CHK EARNINGS WHISPER DOWNLOAD#
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.Ĭhesapeake doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates just once.Īn earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.įor the last reported quarter, it was expected that Chesapeake would post a loss of $0.10 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.11, delivering a surprise of -10%. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Chesapeake will beat the consensus EPS estimate.ĭoes Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue? On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -2.13%. How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Chesapeake?įor Chesapeake, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects.
Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss.
Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.Ī positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate.
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